Why Zach Wilson Should Come Back for His Senior Year
I have to start off this article by saying I am a huge college football fan. I prefer it to the NFL. I love Saturdays at home flipping between 2–3 games at a time. That is when I’m not at the stadium watching my favorite teams in person, the Texas Longhorns and the BYU Cougars. So this is a self-interested plea and I recognize this.
When UT and BYU played their three game series a few years back I felt like the parent who had two kids playing for competing teams. Texas was struggling at that time and Mack Brown was on his way out. BYU had a phenomenal athlete at QB named Taysom Hill. Maybe you’ve heard of him? Plays for a team in Louisiana now that is pretty good. He ran for 259 yards and 3 touchdown’s in the 2013 matchup in Provo. I watched the game in person and was both devastated and exuberant at the same time. In the 2014 game in Austin, the longhorns held Taysom to only 99 yards and 3 touchdowns. I got to watch that game in person as well. BYU had some other really good players on those teams now playing on Sunday. Running back Jamaal Williams who is in Green Bay, Kyle Van Noy who picked up a little hardware while in New England, and “Ziggy” Ansah who went to Detroit.
This year they’ve got another phenomenal athlete at QB named Zach Wilson. Nearly every single NFL mock draft has him going in the first round of the 2021 Draft. He’s generally the #3 QB on the board and is likely to be a top 10–15 pick. With a possible draft selection that high every pundit and analyst will tell you Zach would have to be crazy to come back for his senior year. The logical part of my brain agrees with them. A first round pick is guaranteed tens of millions of dollars, a near certainty of playing immediately, and the immediate love and devotion of the fans of whichever team selects him. But the college football fan side of my brain hopes Zach comes back to play his senior year at BYU. I absolutely want to see him drafted and play in the NFL, I just hope it’s the 2022 draft and here are my reasons.
Reason #1: Beat Utah and end the streak
The 2019 season started off with yet another devastating loss in the “Holy War.” Utah has won the past 9 straight games against BYU. Nobody likes losing rivalry games but to be on the losing side of 9 straight is down right demoralizing. Utah is fairly young and they only played 5 games this year due to the Pac-12’s decision to start the season late, a covid cancellation, and Utah’s decision to opt out of a bowl game. BYU on the other hand will play 12 games and because of the large margin of victory in many games nearly everyone on the 2 deep roster got significant playing time. This is invaluable experience and will be a significant advantage in the matchup. The 2021 game is also a home game at Lavell Edwards Stadium. What better way to end Utah’s winning streak than at home to a sold out stadium? I know I’ll be there.
Reason #2: Become one of the greatest quarterbacks in BYU history
Zach Wilson has had an amazing year. He has thrown for 3,267 yards 30 TDs completed 73% of his passes only has 3 interceptions and also rushed for 8 TDs in 11 games. As of right now Zach is sitting 11th all time in passing yards at BYU just ahead of Taysom Hill and 230 yards behind Steve Sarkisian. Wilson is tied for tenth in passing TDs with Steve Sarkisian and Kevin Feterik. With the bowl game against UCF still on the schedule Wilson is likely to pass Sarkisian in both categories and if it is his last game he puts on the royal blue and white he’ll still be considered one of the top 10 QB’s in BYU history. That isn’t a bad place to be. But what if he comes back for his senior year? Next year will very likely be a normal season, no covid protocols no shortened season. What would Wilson’s stats look like after 13 more games?
There is no question BYU’s opponents in the 2021 season will be significantly better than this year so it isn’t unreasonable to think Wilson won’t average quite as many yards and touchdowns per game as he did this year. Yet he will also be playing with arguably the best receiving corps in BYU history and will have a very experienced offensive line protecting him. For arguments sake lets say he “only” averages 275 yards and 2 touchdowns per game. We’ll throw in an additional 6 rushing touchdowns for the year. With this type of season Zach would end his BYU career with about 11,075 yards, 82 passing touchdowns, and 20 rushing rushing touchdowns. He’d end his career third all time in yards just ahead of mentor John Beck, fourth all time in passing TD’s, and second in rushing touchdowns. With just a slightly better per game average of 300 yards and 2.5 TD’s per game, Wilson could pass Max Hall in total yards for second all time and eclipse Jim McMahon for third in passing touchdowns and solidify his position as one of the top 5 quarterbacks to ever play at BYU. That’s a legacy worth coming back for.
Reason #3: Take BYU to the playoffs and give BYU its second national title
Maybe I should have lead with this one? As much as I love BYU and want to see this happen I know it is a bit of a reach. But maybe not as much of a reach next year as this year. Let me explain. I think this year more than any prior year has exposed the college football selection committee. They operate much like a cartel ensuring that only a very few select teams ever get the chance to play for the national title. This has been apparent for several years but there is a growing number of college football analysts, writers, and coaches who are speaking up. No single voice more importantly so than ESPN commentator Kirk Herbstreit. I don’t expect the pressure on the committee to allow a worthy group of 5 team into the playoff to subside before next year, in fact I think it will ramp up. BYU could be the team that benefits the most from this next year. Should BYU finish this year with a solid win over UCF in the upcoming bowl game, BYU could finish the year ranked in the AP top 10, at worst 12. This is important going into next year. With Zach back under center BYU likely starts the season ranked in the top 20 if not the top 15. It will be a whole lot easier for BYU to get to #4 starting the season ranked.
The selection committee made it very apparent they didn’t consider the teams BYU played this year as worthy of much respect. The same is true for Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina. Gary Barta’s explanation for why BYU was ranked so far behind Cincinnati in the first CFP rankings showed they had never even bothered to compare stats or watch a game. And it didn’t seem to matter to them the margin of victory or the fact Wilson was discussed for much of the year as a Heisman trophy finalist. Next year should Wilson lead BYU to a 9–0 start like he did this year, the selection committee will have immense pressure on them to rank BYU as one of the best teams in college football.
With a 9–0 start BYU would have wins over six so called “Power 5” teams Arizona, Utah, Arizona State, Baylor, Washington State, and Virginia. In addition to the P5 schools it would also include a win over perennial top 25 Mountain West opponent Boise State. Covid protocols won’t likely keep Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier out of the game so the selection committee wouldn’t be able to use his absence from the game as an excuse to downplay a 34 point win. It isn’t impossible to imagine BYU going into the final game of the season against USC undefeated. If BYU finished the season undefeated they’d have seven wins over P5 schools and Boise State. This is where BYU’s independence gives them an advantage over all other group of 5 schools. At most those teams will have 2 or 3 wins over P5 teams. Should this scenario play out and the selection committee doesn’t give BYU the #4 seed, the members will have to go into witness protection or admit unequivocally no non P5 school will ever get a playoff spot.
Reason #4: The Heisman Trophy
BYU has one Heisman Trophy winner, Ty Detmer. Wilson got a lot of chatter for the Heisman this year and deservedly so. Zach ranks fifth in yards, third in touchdowns, has the fewest interceptions among the top quarterbacks, third in completion percentage, and third in passer rating according to ESPN. Should Wilson decide to come back for his senior year he’d start the year as one of if not the #1 Heisman QB candidate. If Kyle Trask, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, and Justin Fields all leave for the NFL Wilson is the highest rated QB left. Other likely contenders next year are UNC QB Sam Howell, UCF QB Dillon Gabriel, ISU QB Brock Purdy, and maybe OU QB Spencer Rattler. If Wilson leads BYU to an undefeated regular season it’ll be hard not to see him invited to NYC for the presentation.
Wilson’s chances will be helped by the fact he’ll have several exceptionally gifted receivers to throw to. Dax Milne, Gunner Romney, and Neil Pau’u are all juniors returning next year. BYU could have two receivers cross the magical 1,000 mark and a third come close. Milne did it this year and if Romney stays healthy for 13 games he likely does as well. In addition to three exceptionally talented receivers Wilson could have two NFL caliber safety blankets at tight end, Isaac Rex and Matt Bushman, should he return after missing the year with an injury. He’d also have an OL with 2–3 NFL draft picks and a 1,000 yard rusher in Tyler Allgeier who could also play at the next level. That is a lot of talent to help Wilson put up the numbers needed to win the Heisman.
Reason #5: Bring a few more cougars with him to the NFL
Wilson is a near guarantee first round pick this year as I stated earlier. RS Junior left tackle Brady Christensen could creep up in the first day as well but most draft boards have him coming off later. RS JR James Empey at center could also be a late round selection for the offense should they declare this year. On the defense side of the ball senior nose tackle Khyris Tonga and RS SO linebacker Max Tooley are other possible draft picks. Due to the disruption of covid the NCAA rightfully allowed everyone to play a full season without losing eligibility so seniors Khyris Tonga, RG Tristen Hoge, FS Zayne Anderson, CB Chris Wilcox, SS Troy Warner, and others could come back for another year and improve their draft position. The BYU defense has 7 seniors that see significant playing time so replacing all of them would present a challenge.
If Wilson comes back for his senior year it could create a chain reaction. I think Christensen and Empey come back for their senior year and improve their draft position doing so. I imagine a few seniors on defense this year would also come back providing a little more continuity on the opposite side of the ball. If Wilson leads the team to a playoff spot or even an 11–1 or 10–2 regular season next year and both Milne and Romney have 1,000 receiving yards they have a much better chance at getting drafted than without him. Tyler Allgeier likely runs for 1,000 yards again and gets drafted. If Bushman plays another year and sees production like he did in 2019 I think he gets selected. Isaac Rex would be draft eligible and maybe he impresses enough to get picked as well. As talented as Baylor Romney and Jaren Hall are I don’t think they’ll have the production or publicity to help their fellow teammates impress the NFL scouts. On the defensive side of the ball Wilson’s production doesn’t help them directly, but it will provide the stage for them to shine.
Reason #6: Silence the critics
As amazing of a season as Wilson has had there has been plenty of critics saying he has only put up the numbers he did because he didn’t play anybody. If Wilson comes back his 2021 schedule includes most of the Pac-12 south, a team from the Big 12, and a team from the ACC. USC and Utah have both recently played for their conference championship. Virginia and Baylor both played for their conference championship in 2019. There isn’t an honest analyst out there who would be able to downplay wins over the teams on the schedule next year. Of the teams on the schedule Utah, Boise State, and USC are consistently ranked in the top 25 and ASU, Virginia, and Baylor could also see time in the top 25 next year. If Wilson has wins over 3–6 ranked teams and puts up 3,500 yards and 30 more touchdowns it will be impossible to say his performance was a reflection of the competition and not of his talents.
Wilson saw a marked improvement over his sophomore season due in part to his summer spent with John Beck in California. Because of covid restrictions he didn’t get the same amount of time working with his team as he would likely get this year. Summer practice is a critical time to help teams get better, for underclassmen to get some work, and chemistry to be built. If Wilson spends another summer working with Beck and gets time to work with his receivers he could come back and have one of the greatest single seasons in BYU history and solidify a claim as one of the greatest QB’s in history. Is some of this a stretch? Of course but I’m a biased fan. I hope I’m watching this play out from my seat in the south end zone of Lavelle Edwards Stadium in 2021 and then in April of 2022 watching Zach Wilson selected as the #1 pick of the NFL draft.
